Ending the debate with facts: Brady vs Rodgers and if they swapped teams

The same debates occur this time of year whenever Brady makes it to the Super Bowl, the 2 major ones are: "Since Aaron Rodgers is the more talented QB, he would be the GOAT if he were playing for the Patriots", and "It's mostly Bill Belichick, he could make any quarterback look good". These debates are usually followed by a lot of opinions, theories and 'what if' scenarios. This post will debunk them all, but with just the facts. Truth is, Aaron Rodgers tries to beat you after the ball is snapped and it's in play, Tom Brady beats you long before the ball is snapped.

MYTH

If Brady and Rodgers switched places, Rodgers would be better than Tom Brady.

FACT

Rodgers wouldn’t be the QB he is today without the Packers sitting him and Mike McCarthy fixing his throwing motion. Before Rodgers Cal quarterbacks had a bad reputation for being system quarterbacks ill prepared to handle the transition to the NFL. Checkout this article breaking down is journey to develop his accuracy and throwing motion and how crucial his development time on the bench was: Aaron Rodgers insight into mechanics.

MYTH

Bill Belichick was a great head coach before Tom Brady.

FACT

Bill Belichick was revered as a coach under Bill Parcells and was a sought after defensive coach. But in 6 years as a head coach prior to his first Superbowl win with Tom Brady, Belichick had just one winning season. Including a 5-11 season with a 3 time pro bowl quarterback in Drew Bledsoe who had previously led his team to the Super Bowl. If it were Aaron Rodgers, a QB with a poor throwing motion wouldn’t have fared better, even with the knowledge of being able to break down defenses on film.

MYTH

Bill Belichick made Tom Brady a winning quarterback and his ‘system’ is what makes Tom Brady clutch.

FACT

Brady’s prowess for throwing underneath began at Michigan where he set school records for completed passes in a single season and won 20 of 25 games. In his final season he had multiple comebacks and was given the nickname ‘the comeback kid’ by the media. His coach Lloyd Carr said he was the best leader in college football after his comeback win against Penn State:

MYTH

Tom Brady was mostly a backup in college and Bill Belichick was a genius to draft him.

FACT

Tom Brady’s dismal combine performance (short passing accuracy, 4th quarter comebacks and leadership aren’t on display at the combine) caused him to fall in the draft. Not his performance as a college QB.

Brady was good enough to start over future NFL quarterback Brian Griese his sophomore year (a year in which Michigan went undefeated and won a shared National Championship) but his coach Lloyd Carr admitted deferring to Griese since he was a senior.

Brady started his junior year and split time for 5 games his senior year due to the intrigue of the talented 2 sport star and hometown Michigan hero Drew Henson.

The other selections by the Patriots in the draft were all failures (2 players drafted ahead of Brady didn’t even make the team), so the draft itself didn’t speak to Belichick’s genius for drafting talent.

MYTH

Bill Belichick drafted Tom Brady knowing he would eventually start for the Patriots.

FACT

Bill Belichick did not draft Tom Brady with the intention to start him, the year after Tom Brady was drafted Drew Beldsoe was signed to a record 10 year deal.

MYTH

Bill Belichick game plans the offensive strategy for the Patriots

FACT

If this was true it would also negate the hype behind Patriots offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Josh McDaniels who has become a hot commodity for another shot at a head coaching job. While Bill Belichick has groomed Brady’s prowess for breaking down film and reading defenses, the partnership has graduated into a 50-50 relationship as seen below in Brady telling Belichick how he's going to play all time great safety Ed Reed.

MYTH

Aaron Rodgers would be just as successful as Brady on the Patriots because they are equals as team leaders.

FACT

In this video Martellus Bennet talks about the differences between Brady and Rodgers (he played for both) in terms of leadership. Brady won the game against the Steelers during the week he says because he was able to call out something special about every guy on the team in regards to their contributions to the team.

Martellus Bennet also mentions that what causes disunity is when the head of the team is treated differently than anyone else. This may allude to Aaron Rodgers as it falls in line with things that Donald Driver and Greg Jennings have said about him in regards to his leadership, receiving praise, not putting the team first and differing blame. Checkout this article giving updates on the odd comments made by former (and well respected) receivers of Aaron Rodgers.

Aaron Rodgers comparison

Superior arm talent and better athlete
Throws outside in and outside targets come at higher price (ex: think Odell Beckham or Deandre Hopkins)
Degree of difficulty for throws are higher and it makes Aaron Rodgers more appealing with the eye test when comparing the two.
Athletic TE’s don’t see as many targets and have less fantasy value because Rodgers throws to the outside.
Requires superior talent in the run game to balance the offense
Less of a threat to read defenses and create opportunities for his running back.
2 minute drill
Less efficient, more appealing to the eye test, degree of difficulty for throws is higher. But outcomes are not higher than Brady’s. But they are certainly more memorable and exciting.

Tom Brady comparison

Throws inside out
All time talent when it comes to accuracy underneath and leading running backs out of the backfield. Very selective with deep balls but not a top 4 QB when it comes to flashy mid-level distance throws.

He works best with multiple 3rd down converting targets (cause who can get open and convert in key situations) who can create their own space.
Cole Beasley would be a beast with the Patriots but is marginalized with the Cowboys with an inconsistent QB.
Slot receivers can be found at a lower price than flashy outside targets (ex: Cole Beasley, Danny Amendola). Doug Baldwin is the #1 slot receiver in the league and he will earn $11 million next year…making him the 14th highest paid receiver in the league.
It is simply more efficient in terms of personnel and cost to run an effective offense with Brady.
2 minute drill
Defenses are less complex, they give up short throws and play outside in, this plays to Tom Brady’s strengths (throws underneath and inside, maximizes run after the catch with his accuracy)
QB rating while behind 1-8 points is 110 (think one score game/game winning drives), QB rating with a lead is 93 (NFL.com, player situational statistics)
Offense is not a system designed by Bill Belichick, but it is a system that plays to Tom Brady’s strengths. Prior to this offense being built for him they leaned heavily on a talented defense (ex: Ty Law, Teddy Bruschi, Vince Wilfork, Willie McGinest, Rodney Harrison, Troy Brown, Mike Vrabel, Devin McCourty, Jerod Mayo, Patrick Chung, Asante Samuel)
Tom Brady’s all-time best outside targets (Randy Moss, Josh Gordon) received more prayers than elite level throws vs Aaron Rodgers. They elevate his game but they are not absolutely necessary. Creating mis-matches with Gronk on the outside substitutes for not having an automatic threat outside the numbers: